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Jacobson: Polarized politics and the 2004 Congressional and presidential elections

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Jacobson. 2005. Polarized politics and the 2004 Congressional and presidential elections. Political Science Quarterly 120: 199-218.

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Main Point

If you're looking at the 2006 elections, the Republicans are in good shape at this point. In 2006, the Republicans will probably try to mobilize along party lines the way they did in 2002 and 2004. As long as people vote on party lines, Republicans win (because Republicans are more spread out than Democrats).

Not a theory so much as an interpretation of the upcoming elections.

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